When Will The S&P500 Find Its Way?
When Will The S&P500 Find Its Way?
Ukraine is still a hot topic.
The conflict in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve, both of which continue to compound investor concern, have recently been the center of attention. While Russia shows no indications of backing down in Ukraine, nothing has changed on the ground, as Putin's offensive seems to have stagnated on multiple fronts.
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In fact, according to certain sources, Russia has lost some ground in several places. A prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia this week has sparked optimism among some military and political experts, but others remain doubtful that Putin is ready to forge a peace accord.
The main concern, according to many space specialists, is that if Putin's army fails to fulfill his aims, he may resort to even more lethal techniques. This week, the United States and the European Union have been increasingly explicit in their warnings to Russia that the deployment of chemical or biological weapons would result in a harsh reaction from the West. No specifics have been disclosed, and authorities behind the scenes have said that they are being "deliberately imprecise" to catch Putin off surprise.
Is it possible for the Fed to keep inflation under control?
Concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation without harming the economy have resurfaced, especially in light of the added obstacles posed by the war
The PCE Pries Index, one of the Fed's preferred inflation indicators, will be released on Thursday, giving Fed watchers much to think about next week. The year-over-year rate increased to +5.2 percent in January from +4.9 percent the previous month, and most economists predict it to climb again in February.
With the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbating the raw materials shortage and Covid lockdowns in China showing symptoms of clogging supply lines once again, whatever the gauge shows next Thursday will almost certainly rise in the coming months. The March Employment Report will provide investors with an update on the labor situation in the United States on Friday. After a rise of over +675,000 jobs in February, the consensus predicts a gain of roughly +500,000 jobs in March.
Investors will be concentrating their attention on the wage component, which was unchanged in January. While this helped to lower the year-over-year rate, salaries were still up more than 5% compared to February 2021.
Wage inflation is particularly "sticky," meaning the greater labor costs rise, the less price increases can eventually reduce.
Data to keep an eye on
On Monday, advance readings on International Trade, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories will be released; on Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence will be released; on Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change and final estimate of Q4 GDP will be released; on Thursday, Personal Income and Outlays and the Chicago PMI will be released; and on Friday, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be released.
On Tuesday, Chewy, Concentrix, Lululemon, and Micron Technology will report results; BioNTech and Paychex will report earnings on Wednesday; and Walgreens will report earnings on Thursday. The conflict in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Fed's fight on inflation, should be kept in the limelight...
The Big Food Concern... There's little doubt that food-importing countries will suffer greatly. Prices at the supermarket in the United States are going to rise much more. The globe is clamoring for more land and greater output, but supply chain disruptions, along with Russia's conflict in Ukraine, have sent fertilizer and input costs sky high, with some countries experiencing severe shortages.